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The Big Tick: Who's Cashing in on the Y2K Industry
(and What Marketers Can Do About It)

By I. P. Daemon

If you are not already stultified to the point of catatonia by the hype surrounding the so-called Millennium Bug, clearly you have been living in a cave. Fascinating predictions continue to proliferate, ranging on the optimism/pessimism scale from "business as usual," to complete socio-political meltdown and financial mayhem. Most observers place the risk somewhere in the middle, which is about as firm as any of the pundits are willing to get. But make no mistake, if Marilyn Vos Savant writes about Y2K in Parade Magazine - right there between the posture girdles and the home electrolysis gizmos - it's got the complete attention of the unwashed masses.

True to the American dream, some people are going to get rich as a result. Some will just have an abundance of additional work to do in preparation. Some will be truly entitled to their Y2K-derived gains. Others could be seen as parasites, waiting to exploit the fears and paranoia of populations who nervously watch the clock advancing toward the inevitable "big tick."

Here's a sampling of the players in the Y2K lottery:

Programmers and Systems Analyst Types - These are the folks who have been toiling for the last few years on the actual code and systems that might be affected. They range from individuals with some basic programming knowledge to some very large organizations like EDS and Andersen Consulting. In fact, outsourcing outfits and systems management firms that haven't trumpeted their Y2K "solutions" are as scarce as male White House interns. And while they've been charging top dollar for their advice and skills, their involvement in the crisis is winding down. As companies decide to patch or scrap their systems at risk, they'll be running the new systems in emulation long before the big tick, just to make sure they know what's going to happen.

One of our many technologically impaired elected officials made the asinine suggestion we declare an additional national holiday on Monday, January 3, 2000 (the first weekday of business in the new year) to give us extra time to sort things out. He obviously doesn't understand that if it ain't fixed by December 31, it won't be fixed by January 3.

Technology Analysts - These guys are like the systems analysts above except they don't write code. They publish copious surveys - sometimes useful, but usually little more than navel gazing - about what companies are doing to prepare for the big tick. Their reports are full of charts and graphs and important-sounding subheadings like "Leadership Strategies" and "Millennium Planning Milestones." Aside from fanning the flames of Y2K paranoia, these analysts typically collect big bucks for generating lots of business for the programmers.

Lone Rangers - As the saying goes, old programmers never die, they just decompile. The term "Lone Ranger" refers to any of a handful of quasi-retired curmudgeons who claim to have the "silver bullet" that will solve the whole Y2K problem. After all, they reason, they wrote the code in the first place, so they know exactly how to fix it. Are they credible?
A few of them have found consulting contracts and customers, but most are like itinerant driveway pavers. In the end, you'll have something resembling a driveway and an invoice, but the degree to which you can drive your car on it is questionable.

Lawyers - Who'd have thunk it? Since so many business relationships are based on contracts calling for timely delivery of goods and services, any potential disruption of schedules could be actionable. Meanwhile, the lawyers are having a field day sniffing out vulnerabilities and opportunities to ply their trade. One well-publicized suit seeks damages from a manufacturer of cash registers whose machines can't read credit cards with expiration dates after 1999. Shareholder lawsuits also loom large if companies fail to disclose the costs of Y2K compliance to their stockholders. At the very least, law firms will cash in performing audits of legal exposure and proposing courses of action to mitigate risk.

Insurance Companies - Wherever there's risk, you'll find these legitimized bookies. Look for a rising level of tension between insurance customers who want their existing coverage to extend to their Y2K exposure, and the insurers who will deny that request. Sure, you can get insurance riders to cover any potential mishap, but it'll cost you. Of course, Catch-22 applies here. Insurers insist that potential customers prove they have no Y2K risks before they can be underwritten, which mitigates the insurer's exposure and maximizes their ability to retain the proceeds from high-priced premiums.

The Media - Need we say more? What's a good controversy without hordes of ink-stained wretches weighing in with unqualified opinions? Accuracy in reporting on Y2K has been a precious and scarce commodity. The good news is that the public will be so sick of Y2K issues very soon that the media will have to return to covering the Beltway innuendo du jour to sell advertising space.

Accountants - The SEC, FDIC and a variety of other federal and state regulatory bodies are updating their rules regarding reporting and disclosure of Y2K compliance. For internal corporate accounting types, these rules will be a nightmare. For consultants and outsourced accounting services companies, it will be a gold mine.

Marketers - Beware the CEO who boasts that he has no Y2K exposure. Every company is only as secure against a Y2K problem as the weakest link in its vendor chain. It's all well and good to fix one's own code, but what about the systems of your prime widget supplier? Could your just-in-time manufacturing operation grind to a halt because your most trivial vendor botched his Y2K compliance?

Even if your organization is, as one of my favorite CEOs put it, "leaning on suppliers big-time" to come into compliance, marketers can still enact some basic common sense measures to smooth out the Y2K bumps and keep the legal and insurance bills to a minimum.

Communicate.
Tell your customers, vendors, employees and neighbors ahead of time - WAY ahead of time - what you are going to do to ensure a smooth ride when the big tick happens.

Be persistent and frequent.
Don't assume that a single statement will calm the universe of your stakeholders. If you constantly reassure your audience that you're on top of this issue, they will have an easier time believing you, making them less likely to be punitive if problems arise.

Use all your traditional communications media.
If you advertise, consider using part of your budget to modify existing campaigns or create new ones to inform your audiences of Y2K preparations. Specific PR campaigns can be created to communicate Y2K preparedness. If you send invoices or statements to customers and vendors, try stuffers and flyers to help tell your story. A specific Web location - or microsite - is an ideal vehicle for communicating detailed information, and advertising and PR campaigns can be designed to promote traffic to the site. However your constituents typically expect to hear from you, make sure the medium carries the Y2K message.

Create and promote lines of communication.
Give your stakeholders an easy way to ask questions and express concerns. Good examples are toll-free hotlines, specific email addresses or even online chat rooms. Make a real person responsible for ensuring your communications are two-way in nature.

Be visible and honest.
Your stakeholders are concerned about Y2K disruptions, and they expect you to be concerned as well. Pretending the issue doesn't exist is like ignoring an elephant in the living room. Your guests will eventually wonder why you're ignoring it and conclude that you're in denial. Tell people both what to expect, and what they can do to reduce their own exposure. Act in good faith, and your customers and vendors are more likely to reciprocate.

No one knows how serious or how mild the turn of the year will be. If, indeed, the inevitable arrival of the year 2000 results in the End Of Civilization As We Now Know It, all the measures described above will seem trivial in comparison. The real likelihood is that the Y2K problem will be a manageable hurdle, and that common-sense measures and good business practices will ultimately prove effective in mitigating customer defections, vendor calamities and obscene legal, accounting and insurance costs.