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Editor's Note: The below summary and predictions were written in
December of 1996, after the Internet saw tremendous growth in the
mainstream market, largely via buzz generated by "push"
technology providers like PointCast. My how times change.
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1996 - The Year Online
1996 has been a huge year for the online industry. Industry giants
Microsoft, Netscape and Sun stole headlines with aggressive PR and
marketing efforts. Many new start-ups emerged, taking advantage
of the optimistic market outlook. The most impressive of the lot,
PointCast, dominated the desktop with a free screensaver and personal
information delivery broadcast system. Many companies have followed
in the wake, most notably Marimba, BackWeb, Intermind, Arrive and
After Dark Online. In the access industry, telephone companies (Sprint,
AT&T and MCI) battled against Internet service providers (UUNet
and NetCom) and online services (AOL, Prodigy and Compuserve) for
market share. The industry experienced fluctuating pricing, most
abandoning hourly rates for flat fees. The browser market, dominated
by Netscape, saw Microsoft play catch-up in a matter of months with
Internet Explorer. The feature war generated buggy, but technologically
savvy software. Embedded within the browser war is the Java/ActiveX
ordeal. Microsoft is pushing their rehashed VisualBasic technology
in ActiveX, while Sun and Netscape push Java as the industry standard.
In the security arena, hackers scored big points in the fear category
by hacking the Department of Defense and CIA Web pages. Industry
experts also revealed security flaws in many servers as well as
a new technique called "Web spoofing" which could result
in the theft of valuable information, including credit card numbers.
http://www.news.com/News/Item/0,4,6515,00.html
1997
- The Year Ahead
1997 will offer many new products and services. While most of these
products and services will come from key industry players like Microsoft
and Netscape, a select group of start-ups will see success similar
to that of PointCast. The most successful companies will focus on
meeting basic needs of Internet users: access, security and control
over the desktop interface. Major players in the access arena, including
MSN, AOL and AT&T will battle over pricing. The winner will
likely hold onto the $19.95 unlimited access pricing model. ISPs
and online services may attempt to unify under a tiered pricing
model for access. Their attempts may be thwarted by user backlash
at the cable TV pricing model. In the security arena, the scare
over information compromise will lead to a rash of detection software
and security consultants. The use of online transactions for goods
and services will continue to populate headlines. The battle over
content value vs. price will rage on, as the Internet's "free
information" foundation will be shaken by online publishers.
The number of online transactions will increase next year, yet lack
of consumer confidence will restrain the market for the next few
years. The control over the desktop will continue to be led by Microsoft
and Netscape. The "Active Desktop" metaphor will soon
become reality with the help of start-ups following the PointCast
and Arrive delivery model. The winners will successfully implement
Java and ActiveX in an interactive, highly graphical interface.
Bandwidth, while currently a hot topic, will increase in importance
as the net continues to grow at breakneck speed. Business users
will demand guaranteed bandwidth from their ISPs, and will be willing
to pay a premium for it. As the noise increases online, companies
creating an online presence will demand marketing services from
their Web developers, ad agencies and PR agencies. "Cyberagencies"
will increase in size and popularity as the single solution for
online communications.
http://www.wave-rock.com
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